Asian shares rise, yen slips after Fed's stimulus steps

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares extended gains for a seventh day on Thursday, after the U.S. Federal Reserve took new stimulus steps to bolster the economy, pressuring the yen with expectations the Japanese central bank will follow suit with more easing next week.

While stocks gained, oil and gold fell from post-Fed rallies, as investors took profits ahead of the year-end, and concerns over the U.S. budget impasse also weighed on sentiment.

The upside for equities was also contained despite the Fed's fresh dose of liquidity-pumping measures, as investors were worried the United States would miss a year-end deadline to avert the "fiscal cliff," some $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to start in January.

U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said on Wednesday "serious differences" remain with President Barack Obama on the budget talks.

Failure to reach a compromise by the end of the year risks pushing the U.S. economy into recession and has stoked fears that a fragile recovery trend emerging in China and some other countries would be stifled.

Against this backdrop, European shares were expected to start narrowly mixed, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> will open flat to 0.2 percent higher. A 0.1 percent gain in U.S. stock futures hinted at a firm Wall Street open. <.l><.eu><.n/>

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> added 0.3 percent to a 16-month peak, having hit successive 16-month highs since December 5. South Korean shares <.ks11> advanced 0.8 percent to a two-month high.

"The Fed's easing measures met the market's expectations, while the setting of clear inflation and unemployment targets exceeded hopes and will clear uncertainty on the monetary front," said Kim Yong-goo, an analyst at Samsung Securities.

The U.S. central bank committed to monthly purchases of $45 billion in Treasuries on top of the $40 billion per month in mortgage-backed bonds it started buying in September. But it also took the unprecedented step of indicating interest rates would remain near zero until unemployment falls to at least 6.5 percent.

YEN WEAKNESS CONTINUES

The dollar advanced to its loftiest in nearly nine months against the yen, touching a high of 83.635 yen. The slumping yen boosted Japan's Nikkei share average <.n225> up 1.6 percent and above 9,700 for the first time in eight months. <.t/>

Japan holds an election on Sunday, with opinion surveys showing conservative former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's opposition Liberal Democratic Party and its smaller ally heading for a resounding victory.

Abe wants to step up aggressive monetary easing along with heavy public works spending, policy prescriptions dubbed "Abenomics" by the media, and while he threatens to curtail the Bank of Japan's independence, investors reckon the responsibility of power will prevent Abe taking excessive risks that could lead to a bond market meltdown.

"As the Fed sets direction on policy rates for the rest of central banks and equity markets, the Bank of Japan sets the currency vehicle, by stepping up asset purchases and driving down the yen once LDP Chief Abe becomes the likely PM at Sunday's elections," Ashraf Laidi, chief global strategist at City Index, said in a note to clients.

At its December 19-20 meeting, the BOJ is widely expected to further ease monetary policy to support its weak economy.

The Fed's latest move to make the jobless rate a target for its monetary policy could have a longer-term implication on the BOJ.

"While the BOJ's ultimate goal is to pull Japan out of deflation, the Fed's latest move could prompt Japanese politicians or the government to urge the BOJ to also commit itself to growth, not just price stability," said Chotaro Morita, chief fixed income strategist at Barclays.

Morita said that market consensus is for the BOJ to expand its asset-buying and lending program, currently at 91 trillion yen ($1.1 trillion), by another 5-10 trillion yen, and put off taking bolder steps until after a new cabinet is formed.

Rising U.S. Treasury bond yields also drew demand for the dollar against the yen, given the stable and low Japanese yields.

BETTER EUROPEAN NEWS

The euro was relatively more robust than the dollar and the yen, inching up 0.1 percent to $1.3082 to approach Wednesday's high of $1.3098, as some positive news emerged.

Europe clinched a deal on Thursday to give the European Central Bank new powers to supervise euro zone banks, the first step in a new phase of closer integration to help underpin the single currency.

Greece's foreign lenders welcomed a bond buyback, paving the way for Athens to get long-delayed aid to avoid bankruptcy.

In Italy, another debt-straddled euro zone country, Silvio Berlusconi offered to stand back and make way for Mario Monti as Italy's next leader if the outgoing technocrat premier agreed to run as the candidate for a center-right coalition. Monti's intention to resign has raised concerns that his austerity policies may not be carried out.

Oil prices retreated from overnight gains, with U.S. crude futures down 0.2 percent to $86.57 a barrel and Brent falling 0.2 percent to $109.24.

Gold tumbled more than 1 percent on stop-loss selling after touching their highest in nearly two weeks on Wednesday. Spot gold dropped as much as 1 percent to $1,693.80.

($1 = 82.9300 Japanese yen)

(Additional reporting by Somang Yang in Seoul; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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Asian shares rise, Fed outcome pressures dollar

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares rose on Wednesday buoyed by strength in global equities markets, firmer economic sentiment in Germany and hopes of a deal from U.S. budget talks, while the dollar came under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> gained 0.5 percent to a 16-month peak. The index has hit successive 16-month highs since December 5.

Australian shares <.axjo> were up 0.4 after touching a nearly 17-month high on the back of Wall Street gains and higher iron ore prices.

"Definitely the momentum is to the upside," said Stan Shamu, a market analyst at IG Markets. "Everyone seems to be pricing in a fairly positive outcome to the fiscal cliff negotiations as well."

South Korean shares <.ks11> inched up 0.2 percent, shrugging off news of North Korea's rocket launch, but profit-taking on large caps limited gains.

"North Korea is no longer an economic match for the South, so, short of a full-scale conflict, the North's actions will have little impact on the KOSPI," Im No-jung, chief economist at IM Investment & Securities, said of the Seoul stock market.

North Korea launched the second rocket this year on Wednesday just before 10 a.m. and may have finally succeeded in putting a satellite into space, the stated aim of what critics say is a disguised ballistic missile test.

Japan's Nikkei share average <.n225> rose 0.5 percent after hitting a 7-1/2-month high earlier, led by gains in tech shares and other exporters on the weak yen. <.t/>

The dollar remained broadly under pressure on expectations the Fed will take further monetary easing step, pushing the currency down to a three-month low against the Australian dollar. The euro popped back above $1.3000, pulling away from a two-week low of $1.2876 plumbed Friday.

The Fed is expected to announce it will buy $45 billion per month of longer-dated Treasuries beginning in January on top of the $40 billion in mortgage-backed security purchases it announced in September. The new buying will replace the Fed's current program, Operation Twist, which expires at the end of December.

"Although the view that the Fed will shift to outright Treasury purchases is now very widely shared by market participants, we do not believe it has been fully reflected into markets or in positioning," said Vassili Serebriakov, a strategist at BNP Paribas.

"Accordingly, dollar weakness is highly likely should the Fed shift to outright U.S. Treasury purchases."

Against the yen, the dollar steadied at 82.54 yen. The Japanese currency has also been pressured by expectations for more easing from the Bank of Japan, which meets next week.

Data on Wednesday showed Japan's core machinery orders rose 2.6 percent in October from the previous month, up for the first time in three months but below a 3 percent rise forecast, highlighting how uncertainty over the global outlook continued to weigh on business investment and the broader economy.

Investors also closely followed developments in U.S. budget talks to avert the "fiscal cliff," some $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to start in January, which economists have warned could send the U.S. economy into recession and drag down the fragile global economy.

Negotiations to avert the "fiscal cliff" ahead of a year-end deadline intensified as President Barack Obama and U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner spoke by phone on Tuesday after exchanging new proposals, in a possible sign of progress ahead of the end-of-year deadline.

A group of high-profile chief executives urged President Barack Obama and Republican congressional leaders on Tuesday to strike a deal, reflecting mounting urgency to resolve the issue with time running out.

U.S. crude futures inched up 0.2 percent to $85.96 a barrel and Brent rose 0.3 percent to $108.37.

(Additional reporting by Maggie Lu Yueyang in Canberra, Somang Yang and Joyce Lee in Seoul and Ian Chua in Sydney; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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Asian shares edge up; Fed move, fiscal cliff in focus

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares edged higher while the euro steadied on Tuesday, but prices were capped as investors waited for the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week and any progress in U.S. budget talks.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> nudged up 0.2 percent. The index has hit successive 16-month highs for the past four sessions.

Australian shares <.axjo> gained 0.4 percent to their highest in nearly two months on a strong resources sector, which was supported by a rise in metals and oil prices and hopes for the Fed to further ease monetary policy.

Hong Kong shares <.hsi> rose 0.4 percent to a 16-month high but Shanghai shares <.ssec> fell 0.5 percent.

"The market continues to trade sideways in an environment where headlines seem to have lost bite. Poor liquidity conditions as we approach the end of the year seem to keep portfolios on a tight leash around their benchmarks," said Barclays Capital analysts in a research note.

Japan's Nikkei share average <.n225> was the region's other laggard, slipping 0.3 percent to around 9,506 as investors became cautious over signs that the market is overbought after a 10 percent rally in the past month and took profit on export-focused firms. <.t/>

"The 9,500-level is still an important psychological line for both support and resistance purposes," said Yutaka Miura, a senior technical analyst at Mizuho Securities.

U.S. Treasury prices edged higher on Monday on worries about U.S. budget wrangling, Italy's political rumbling and expectations of further monetary easing by the Fed.

At the end of the two-day meeting which begins on Tuesday, the Fed is expected to announce it will buy $45 billion per month of longer-dated Treasuries beginning in January to replace the current Operation Twist program, which expires at the end of December.

Under the program, it sells shorter-dated U.S. government debt and buys longer-dated Treasuries to extend the duration of its balance sheet.

Such views weighed on the dollar and helped to underpin the euro, which traded at $1.2937, off Monday's low of $1.2880.

The dollar firmed 0.1 percent to 82.40 yen as the yen has also been pressured by expectations for more easing from the Bank of Japan, which meets next week.

The euro was also supported as Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti played down market fears over his decision to resign, saying there was no danger of a vacuum ahead of an election in the spring.

"I think people at this point are not sure whether there really will be the risk of Italy not pursuing its fiscal reforms pursued under Monti. So it's hard to really price that news in yet," said Takao Hattori, senior investment strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities in Tokyo.

FISCAL WORRIES

European partners urged the next Italian government on Monday to stick to Monti's reform agenda, after his decision to resign early and Silvio Berlusconi's return to frontline politics rattled financial markets.

Monti had earned market confidence over the past year in indebted Italy, as he spearheaded a reform agenda to rescue the euro zone's third-largest economy from the threat of a Greek-style collapse.

His earlier-than-expected departure raised concerns about the prospects for Italy's fiscal reforms, lifting Italy's benchmark 10-year bond yield up to 4.83 percent, the highest in more than three weeks, while driving Italian shares <.ftmib> down more than 2 percent.

Investors also worry about the impact on neighboring Spain, which is struggling with high debt and studying the need for outside help.

Fiscal worries in the United States have also weighed on investor sentiment, limiting their activity as trading winds down towards the year-end holiday season.

Economists have warned that a failure by Congress to avert the "fiscal cliff," some $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to start in January, could send the U.S. economy back into recession, further weighing on the fragile global economy.

The White House and House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner's office held more negotiations on Monday on ways to break the budget stalemate, but neither side showed any public signs that they were ready to give ground. The talks picked up pace after Boehner met with President Barack Obama on Sunday, raising hopes of progress.

U.S. crude futures were little changed at $85.56 a barrel and Brent eased 0.1 percent to $107.28.

Trading was subdued in Asian credit markets, with the slight rise in stocks helping to narrow the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index marginally by 1 basis point.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)

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Asian shares firm as China, U.S. data brighten outlook

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares clambered to a 16-month high on Monday as investors took heart from economic data from China and the United States that raised hopes about the outlook for growth in the world's top two economies.

The euro was under pressure, having been knocked by the prospect of a recession in Germany and political uncertainty in Italy after Prime Minister Mario Monti, an investors' favorite, said at the weekend he intended to resign early.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> and Tokyo's Nikkei share average <.n225> both gained 0.3 percent. <.t/>

The MSCI index rose more than 1 percent last week, its third successive weekly gain, taking it to levels not seen since early August 2011, and there was a further boost for regional markets on Sunday when China reported a pick-up in factory output and retail sales growth to eight-month highs.

"We had some really good economic data coming out from China," said Juliana Roadley, market analyst at Commonwealth Securities. "Over the last few years, you had the Chinese government pulling back on growth and trying to control things so that it didn't over-boil. Now it looks like all that good work has been done."

Hopes that China's economy is revving up again after seven straight quarters of slowing growth also boosted riskier assets such as oil and copper.

Asian "risk" markets took in their stride China trade data on Monday that showed both imports and exports below forecasts.

"The export slowdown shows external demand faces uncertainty due to concerns over the fiscal cliff in the US," Zhang Zhiwei, chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, said. "Nonetheless it does not change our view that growth is on track for a strong recovery in Q4, as (growth) is mostly domestically driven."

On Wall Street, the Dow <.dji> and S&P 500 <.spx> had risen modestly on Friday after an unexpected fall in the U.S. unemployment rate. S&P 500 futures were up 0.1 percent on Monday. <.n/>

MARKETS WATCH ITALY

The euro slid in early trading towards a two-week low of $1.2876 plumbed on Friday, before popping back above $1.29. Investors had sold the euro after Germany's central bank on Friday warned that the euro zone's biggest economy could soon enter recession.

Italian Prime Minister Monti's surprise announcement at the weekend came a few days after former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi abruptly withdrew support for Monti's technocrat government, formed over a year ago in an effort to restore Italy's credibility with investors.

"If Monti's pro-euro stance is to back off, that should raise concerns about the euro," said Junya Tanase, chief currency strategist at JPMorgan Chase in Tokyo.

Italian bond yields will be closely watched on Monday. The 10-year yield, the main barometer of investor confidence, stood at 4.5 percent at the end of last week, 323 basis points higher than the yield on the lower risk German equivalent but well below the 7.3 percent peak hit last year, when the spread over German Bunds hit 550 points.

The U.S. dollar rose about 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies <.dxy>.

Commodity markets were also generally firmer, with copper, which draws strength from expectations of Chinese industrial demand, rising 0.2 percent to around $8,050 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) and oil rising around 0.3 percent.

Brent crude trade around $107.40 a barrel and U.S. crude fetched about $86.20.

"Investors are slightly more optimistic about China's economic recovery than before and that is supportive for oil," said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity sales manager at Newedge Japan.

The easy outlook for monetary policy continued to support gold, with the U.S. Federal Reserve expected to signal this week it will continue to pump money into the economy in 2013. Also, there was talk of a possible rate cut next year by the European Central Bank.

Spot gold firmed 0.1 percent to around $1,705 an ounce.

(Additional reporting by Thuy Ong in Sydney and Manash Goswami in Singapore; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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Wall Street Week Ahead: "Cliff" worries may drive tax selling

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end. But worries about the "fiscal cliff" - and the possibility of higher taxes in 2013 - may act as the greatest incentive to sell both winners and losers by December 31.

The $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year includes higher rates for capital gains, making tax-loss selling even more appealing than usual.

Tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the shares of market leader Apple , analysts said. The stock is down 20 percent for the quarter, but it's still up nearly 32 percent for the year.

Apple dropped 8.9 percent in this past week alone. For a stock that gained more than 25 percent a year for four consecutive years, the embedded capital gains suddenly look like a selling opportunity if one's tax bill is going to jump sharply just because the calendar changes.

"Tax-loss selling is always a factor (but) tax-gains selling has been a factor this year," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

"You have a lot of high-net-worth individuals in taxable accounts, and that could be what's affecting stocks like Apple. If you look at the stocks that people have their largest gains in, they seem to be under a little bit more pressure here than usual."

Of this year's top 20 performers in the S&P 1500 index, which includes large, small and mid-cap stocks, all but four have lost ground in the last five trading sessions.

The rush to avoid higher taxes on portfolio gains could cause additional weakness.

The S&P 500 ended the week up just 0.1 percent after another week of trading largely tied to fiscal cliff negotiation news, which has pushed the market in both directions.

A PAIN PILL FROM THE FED?

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting could offer some relief if policymakers announce further plans to help the lackluster U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is expected at about 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday after the conclusion of the meeting - the Fed's last one for the year.

Friday's jobs report showing non-farm payrolls added 146,000 jobs in November eased worries that Superstorm Sandy had hit the labor market hard.

"After the FOMC meeting, I think it's going to be downhill from there as worries about the fiscal cliff really take center stage and prospects of a deal become less and less likely," said Mohannad Aama, managing director of Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.

"I think we are likely to see an escalation in profit-taking ahead of tax rates going up next year," he said.

MORE VOLUME AND VOLATILITY

Volume could increase as investors try to shift positions before year end, some analysts said.

While most of that would be in stocks, some of the extra trading volume could spill over into options, said J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade's chief derivatives strategist.

Volatility could pick up as well, and some of that is already being seen in Apple's stock.

"The actual volatility in Apple has been very high while the market itself has been calm. I expect Apple's volatility to carry over into the market volatility," said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com, an options trading firm in New York.

Shares of Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, registered their worst week since May 2010. In another bearish sign, the stock's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38.

"There's a lot of tax-related selling happening now, and it will continue to happen. Apple is an example, even (though) there are other factors involved with Apple," Aama said.

While investors may be selling stocks to avoid higher taxes in 2013, companies may continue to announce special and accelerated dividend payments before year end. Among the latest, Expedia announced a special dividend of 52 cents a share to be paid on December 28.

To be sure, the big sell-off in stocks following the November 6 election was likely related to tax selling, making it hard to judge how much more is to come.

Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston, said there's a decent chance that the market could rally before year end.

"Even with little or spotty news that one would put in the positive bucket regarding the (cliff) negotiations, the market has basically hung in there, and I think it's hung in there in anticipation of something coming," he said.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: caroline.valetkevitch(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal; Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for:; 3000 Xtra: visit Reuters Top News; BridgeStation: view story .134; For London stock market outlook please click on .L/O; Pan-European stock market outlook .EU/O; Tokyo stock market outlook .T/O; Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday.)

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Wall Street Week Ahead: "Cliff" worries may drive tax selling

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end. But worries about the "fiscal cliff" - and the possibility of higher taxes in 2013 - may act as the greatest incentive to sell both winners and losers by December 31.

The $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year includes higher rates for capital gains, making tax-loss selling even more appealing than usual.

Tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the shares of market leader Apple , analysts said. The stock is down 20 percent for the quarter, but it's still up nearly 32 percent for the year.

Apple dropped 8.9 percent in this past week alone. For a stock that gained more than 25 percent a year for four consecutive years, the embedded capital gains suddenly look like a selling opportunity if one's tax bill is going to jump sharply just because the calendar changes.

"Tax-loss selling is always a factor (but) tax-gains selling has been a factor this year," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.

"You have a lot of high-net-worth individuals in taxable accounts, and that could be what's affecting stocks like Apple. If you look at the stocks that people have their largest gains in, they seem to be under a little bit more pressure here than usual."

Of this year's top 20 performers in the S&P 1500 index, which includes large, small and mid-cap stocks, all but four have lost ground in the last five trading sessions.

The rush to avoid higher taxes on portfolio gains could cause additional weakness.

The S&P 500 ended the week up just 0.1 percent after another week of trading largely tied to fiscal cliff negotiation news, which has pushed the market in both directions.

A PAIN PILL FROM THE FED?

Next week's Federal Reserve meeting could offer some relief if policymakers announce further plans to help the lackluster U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is expected at about 12:30 p.m. on Wednesday after the conclusion of the meeting - the Fed's last one for the year.

Friday's jobs report showing non-farm payrolls added 146,000 jobs in November eased worries that Superstorm Sandy had hit the labor market hard.

"After the FOMC meeting, I think it's going to be downhill from there as worries about the fiscal cliff really take center stage and prospects of a deal become less and less likely," said Mohannad Aama, managing director of Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.

"I think we are likely to see an escalation in profit-taking ahead of tax rates going up next year," he said.

MORE VOLUME AND VOLATILITY

Volume could increase as investors try to shift positions before year end, some analysts said.

While most of that would be in stocks, some of the extra trading volume could spill over into options, said J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade's chief derivatives strategist.

Volatility could pick up as well, and some of that is already being seen in Apple's stock.

"The actual volatility in Apple has been very high while the market itself has been calm. I expect Apple's volatility to carry over into the market volatility," said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com, an options trading firm in New York.

Shares of Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, registered their worst week since May 2010. In another bearish sign, the stock's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38.

"There's a lot of tax-related selling happening now, and it will continue to happen. Apple is an example, even (though) there are other factors involved with Apple," Aama said.

While investors may be selling stocks to avoid higher taxes in 2013, companies may continue to announce special and accelerated dividend payments before year end. Among the latest, Expedia announced a special dividend of 52 cents a share to be paid on December 28.

To be sure, the big sell-off in stocks following the November 6 election was likely related to tax selling, making it hard to judge how much more is to come.

Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston, said there's a decent chance that the market could rally before year end.

"Even with little or spotty news that one would put in the positive bucket regarding the (cliff) negotiations, the market has basically hung in there, and I think it's hung in there in anticipation of something coming," he said.

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: caroline.valetkevitch(at)thomsonreuters.com)

(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal; Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for:; 3000 Xtra: visit Reuters Top News; BridgeStation: view story .134; For London stock market outlook please click on .L/O; Pan-European stock market outlook .EU/O; Tokyo stock market outlook .T/O; Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday.)

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Asia shares edge higher, focus on U.S. jobs

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares touched fresh 16-month highs on Friday following modest overnight gains in global equities as investors watched progress in U.S. budget talks with expectations for an eventual deal and awaited U.S. nonfarm payrolls data later in the day.

The euro hovered near a one-week low against the dollar, having fallen after the European Central Bank painted a bleak outlook for the euro zone and discussed cutting interest rates at its policy meeting on Thursday when it kept rates steady.

Recent indicators suggesting stabilizing growth in China, the world's second-largest, economy also helped improve sentiment, although the Asian Development Bank slightly lowered its 2012 and 2013 growth estimates for developing Asia on Friday as frail global demand drags on the region.

Buoyed by strong domestic demand, developing Asian economies have shown relatively more resilience compared with developed and more export-reliant economies such as Japan and south Korea.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> rose 0.6 percent, and was set for its third-straight weekly gain with a 1.4 percent advance. The index has gained about 17 percent year-to-date, compared to a loss of nearly 18 percent last year.

South and Southeast Asian bourses have outperformed, with a 32 percent year-to-date surge in the Philippines <.psi>, a nearly 31 percent gain in Thailand <.seti>, Indian shares <.bsesn> rising 26 percent and Indonesia <.jkse> up 12 percent to date.

Hong Kong shares <.hsi> were up 0.5 percent to a 16-month high and risen 21 percent so far this year, despite facing bouts of pressure from sputtering mainland Chinese markets.

South Korean shares <.ks11> were up 0.5 percent and Australian shares <.axjo> jumped 0.9 percent to its highest in nearly seven weeks, as top miners were supported by rebounding iron ore prices and banks recovered from losses the previous day.

"One of the reasons for the gains is better news we've seen from China and expectations the economy there has stabilized and growth has improved modestly," said Michael McCarthy, chief market strategist at CMC Markets.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> inched up 0.2 percent. <.t/>

U.S. stocks advanced modestly while the FTSEurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> of top European shares hit an 18-month closing high on Thursday.

As superstorm Sandy disrupted U.S. economic activity, nonfarm payrolls in November are expected to have increased only 93,000, compared to October's 171,000 job gain, a Reuters survey of economists showed. The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 7.9 percent.

"A soft number should reinforce the case for the Fed doves ahead of next week's FOMC meeting where QE is likely to be increased in order to at least offset the expiration of Operation Twist. Hence a soft report should hurt USD and vice versa," Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac bank in Sydney, said in a note.

At its December 11-12 meeting, the Federal Reserve is expected to announce a new round of Treasury bond purchases to reinforce quantitative easing, replacing the expiring programme called Operation Twist, under which it bought $45 billion of longer-dated bonds a month while selling its shorter-date holdings.

The dollar traded at 82.47 yen, sticking close to a 7-1/2-month high of 82.84 hit on November 22.

With little to show after a month of posturing, the White House and Republicans in Congress dropped hints on Thursday that they had resumed low-level private talks on breaking the stalemate over the "fiscal cliff" but refused to divulge details.

Markets have been keeping up hope that Washington would eventually avert some $600 billion of tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to start in January. Economists have warned that failure by Congress to reach an agreement on deficit reduction could tip the U.S. economy back into recession, further weighing on the fragile global economy.

"The main board is extending its upward trend that began in mid-November on hopes for a positive conclusion to the U.S. 'fiscal cliff' and economic growth policies from China," said Park Hae-sung, an analyst at LIG Investment & Securities.

Global rates: http://link.reuters.com/xyb96s

U.S. fiscal cliff: http://link.reuters.com/dut83t

Asset returns in 2012: http://link.reuters.com/nyw85s

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>

EURO ON DEFENSIVE

The euro steadied at around $1.2968, after falling nearly 1 percent to $1.2950 on Thursday in its biggest one-day loss in a month, and retreating from a seven-week peak of $1.3127 set mid-week.

ECB President Mario Draghi said on Thursday policymakers had held a wide discussion on interest rates, including negative deposit rates, leaving the door open to a possible cut in borrowing costs next year.

Creating negative deposit rates means effectively charging depositors rather than paying them interest, with an aim of forcing banks to put their money to work elsewhere.

The ECB's new staff also projected gross domestic product next year could range from a contraction of 0.9 percent to growth of just 0.3 percent, suggesting contraction is far more likely than not. It forecast inflation of 1.1 percent to 2.1 percent next year.

"It is unusual that a negative growth projection for the next year is offered before the end of the current year, but with such a view, markets are naturally pricing in a interest rate cut," said Daisuke Karakama, market economist for Mizuho Corporate Bank in Tokyo.

He expected the euro to remain vulnerable with the risk of falling back to $1.2 at some point, but the single currency appeared to be supported currently by year-end repatriation flows.

U.S. crude futures inched up 0.3 percent to $86.53 a barrel and Brent rose 0.2 percent to $107.27.

(Additional reporting by Joyce Lee in Seoul and Maggie Lu Yueyang; Editing by Kim Coghill)

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Dow, S&P rise, but Nasdaq sours with Apple in wild day

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A volatile trading session ended with U.S. stocks mostly higher on Wednesday, even as Apple, the most valuable company in the United States, suffered its worst day of losses in almost four years.

In a strange occurrence, Apple accounted for the entirety of the Nasdaq 100's <.ndx> fall of 1.1 percent, while the Dow industrials - which do not include Apple as a component - enjoyed the best day since November 28.

With the drop, Apple shed nearly $35 billion in market capitalization, its biggest one-day market-cap loss ever. The company's market value, or market capitalization, now stands at $506.85 billion.

"Today's move is because of index weightings, with the Nasdaq down because of Apple's decline," said Rex Macey, chief investment officer of Wilmington Trust in Atlanta. "The S&P is up because Apple isn't as big a weight in that index, and the Dow is up even more because it isn't there at all."

The broad market seesawed, with the S&P 500 dropping into negative territory before it rebounded off the 1,400 level, seen as a key support point over the past two weeks. Investors cited comments from President Barack Obama suggesting a potential near-term resolution to the "fiscal cliff" wrangling in Washington as a catalyst for the rebound.

Shares of The Travelers Cos Inc rose 4.9 percent to $74. The stock ranked as the Dow's top percentage gainer after the insurance company said it intended to resume stock buybacks it had temporarily suspended while it assessed its exposure to Superstorm Sandy. The company also said a preliminary estimate of net losses from Sandy was about $650 million after tax.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 82.71 points, or 0.64 percent, to 13,034.49 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> gained 2.23 points, or 0.16 percent, to 1,409.28. But the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> fell 22.99 points, or 0.77 percent, to end at 2,973.70.

Apple, the largest U.S. company by market capitalization and a big weight in both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, fell 6.4 percent to $538.79. Apple is down more than 20 percent from an all-time high reached in late September, putting the stock into bear market territory.

Banking shares were led higher by a 6.3 percent jump in Citigroup to $36.46 after the company said it would cut 4 percent of its workforce. The S&P financial sector index <.gspf> climbed 1.3 percent, and Bank of America hit a 52-week high of $10.55 before pulling back slightly. The stock, a Dow component, ended at $10.46, up 5.7 percent for the day.

Cyclical sectors, which are tied to the pace of economic growth, rallied on optimism about progress on a solution to avoid the fiscal cliff. An S&P index of industrial stocks <.gspi> rose 1.1 percent, buoyed by Caterpillar Inc , up 2.2 percent at $86.05, while an S&P index of energy shares <.gspe> climbed 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones Transportation Average <.djt> gained 0.9 percent, with CSX Corp jumping 2.7 percent to $20.16.

Still, Apple struggled throughout the session. Market participants cited a host of reasons for the drop in the iPad maker's stock, including a consultant's report about the company losing share in the tablet market and reports that margin requirements had been raised by at least one clearing firm, as well as year-end tax selling ahead of a possible rise in capital-gains tax rates next year.

On the Washington front, Obama told the Business Roundtable, a group of chief executives, on Wednesday that a fiscal cliff deal was possible "in about a week" if Republicans acknowledged the need to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

Equities have struggled to gain ground recently because of concerns over the fiscal cliff - a series of mandatory spending cuts and tax increases effective in early January that could push the U.S. economy into recession next year. Recently equities have moved on any whiffs of sentiment from Washington in headlines about negotiations.

"Obama's comments generated a lot of optimism, but to the extent the market believes them, that's how much we're setting ourselves up for a decline if that deadline passes with no progress," said Macey, who helps oversee about $20 billion in assets.

In an interview on CNBC after the market closed, U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner said that uncertainty over the fiscal cliff was standing in the way of stronger economic growth, and that there was no prospect for an agreement if tax rates didn't rise on the wealthiest taxpayers.

The stock of Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc fell 16 percent to $32.17 and ranked as the S&P 500's biggest percentage decliner. The company said it was acquiring Plains Exploration & Production Co and McMoRan Exploration Co in two separate deals for $9 billion in cash and stock in a major expansion into energy.

McMoRan Exploration soared 87 percent to $15.82 and Plains surged 23.4 percent to $44.50.

About half of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed in positive territory, while about 54 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares ended lower.

Volume was higher than it has been in recent sessions, with about 6.93 billion shares changing hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, above the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares.

(Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Wall Street slips as investors seek cliff progress

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks finished slightly lower in a quiet session on Tuesday as the back-and-forth wrangling over the "fiscal cliff" gave investors little reason to act.

Trading volume was light as legislators continue to negotiate a deal to avoid a $600 billion package of tax hikes and federal spending cuts that would begin January 1 and could push the economy into recession.

Just 5.86 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, below the year's daily average of 6.48 billion shares.

A key measure of investor anxiety has remained muted. The CBOE Volatility Index or VIX <.vix>, a gauge of market anxiety, was at 17.12, up 2.9 percent. It has not traded above 20 since July.

Optimism for progress was dented after remarks by President Barack Obama, who rejected a Republican proposal to resolve the crisis as "out of balance" and said any deal must include a rise in income tax rates on the wealthiest Americans.

"People don't know if what's going on is political posturing or real negotiations that represent progress," said Bernard Baumohl, managing director and chief global economist at the Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.

Expectations of higher taxes on dividends beginning in 2013 have pushed many companies to pay special dividends this year or advance their next payback to investors. Coach became the latest to move up the date of its next dividend payment, and the news lifted shares of the upscale leather-goods maker earlier in the session. By the close, though, Coach was down 1.2 percent at $57.52.

One of the S&P 500's top sectors for the day was health care <.gspa>, considered a defensive group.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell 13.82 points, or 0.11 percent, to 12,951.78 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> dipped 2.41 points, or 0.17 percent, to 1,407.05. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> shed 5.51 points, or 0.18 percent, to close at 2,996.69.

The market has been sensitive to rhetoric from Washington, as a failure to reach an agreement could send the U.S. economy back into recession. Still, many expect a resolution to be found, which could extend the S&P 500's rally of 12 percent so far this year.

Differences within the Republican Party came to the fore on Tuesday as one senator opposed to raising taxes lashed out at Republican House Speaker John Boehner for proposing to increase revenue by closing some tax loopholes.

Congressional Republicans recently proposed steep spending cuts to bring down the budget deficit, but gave no ground on Obama's call to raise tax rates on the rich. The proposal was quickly dismissed by the White House.

"We're on hold trying to figure it out, but investors are stressed since they have to make decisions soon about how to proceed with their investments if taxes are indeed going up. We could see a real pick-up in volume over the next week or so," Baumohl said.

Netflix Inc was the S&P 500's top percentage gainer, advancing 14 percent to $86.65 after Walt Disney Co agreed to give the company exclusive TV distribution rights to its movies, starting in 2016.

Intel Corp shares rose 2.2 percent to $19.97 after the top chipmaker sold $6 billion in bonds to fund stock buybacks and other business activities.

Darden Restaurants Inc shares plunged 9.6 percent to $47.40 as the S&P 500's worst performer after the company warned that its latest quarter would miss expectations after unsuccessful promotions led to a decline in sales at its Olive Garden, Red Lobster and LongHorn Steakhouse chains.

In contrast, Big Lots Inc surged 11.5 percent to $31.27 after the close-out retailer posted a smaller-than-expected loss and boosted its full-year adjusted earnings forecast.

MetroPCS Communications shares tumbled 7.5 percent to $9.96 after Sprint Nextel appeared unlikely to make a counter-offer for the wireless service provider.

Almost half of the stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange closed lower, while 50 percent of Nasdaq-listed shares closed in negative territory.

After the closing bell, Pandora Media Inc

shares plunged 23 percent after the company reported its third-quarter results.

(Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Asian shares fall from nine-month high on weak U.S. data

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Asian shares slipped on Tuesday after a plunge in U.S. manufacturing activity hit American stocks and the dollar, while the euro hovered near a six-week high on optimism over Greece's plan to buy back debt.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> fell 0.3 percent to 450.79, backing away from a nine-month high reached on Monday.

Australian shares <.axjo> eased 0.5 percent, while Japan's benchmark Nikkei share average fell 0.2 percent, declining further from a seven-month intraday high of 9,525.82 struck on Monday.

The losses in Asian stock markets were suggestive of some caution after gains in the past few weeks, with some of the negative bias seeping over from weakness in the American economy and continued gridlock in the U.S. Congress over proposals to avert a fiscal cliff - $600 billion worth of tax increases and spending cuts that will be automatically triggered in early 2013.

"Investors are cautious about the market's sharp rise in the past few weeks, and as soon as the Nikkei hit the 9,500-mark, trading has slowed down. Investors started taking a wait-and-see mode," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities in Tokyo.

Global share indexes had risen on Monday after manufacturing surveys showed signs of a recovery, albeit an uneven one, in China's economy and a slower contraction in Europe. But sentiment toward equities soured after data revealed U.S. manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in November to its lowest level in more than three years.

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said on Monday that its index of national factory activity fell to 49.5 in November, the weakest since July 2009, as companies worried about whether lawmakers in Washington could reach a budget deal in time to avert a fiscal crisis that may lead to a recession.

Heading into next week, even a hint of progress in the fiscal cliff negotiations could spawn a modest rally, said Vishnu Varathan, regional economist in Singapore for Mizuho Corporate Bank.

"Overall the euro zone noises are coming out positive and I don't see any turning around there. The only real deal-breaker, whatever will send the dollar spiking up and risk really off the table, will be if there is a complete breakdown in the Congress negotiations," he said.

"Right now there is some disappointment here and there, but overall still the consensus is that negotiations will result in some kind of acceptable compromise," Varathan said.

RBA CUTS

The Australian dollar recovered from initial weakness on Tuesday after a widely expected interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The rate was trimmed by 25 basis points to 3.0 percent, matching an earlier record low.

The RBA said the full impact of rate cuts in the past had yet to be felt, and that recent data confirmed the peak in resource investment was approaching.

The Aussie rose 0.3 percent on the day and last traded at $1.0445, not far from a two-month peak of $1.0491 touched last week.

The euro was flat at $1.3060, hovering near the previous day's high of $1.3076, the single currency's strongest level in about six weeks.

The euro gained as Greek bonds rallied on Monday after Athens announced better-than-expected terms for its planned debt buy-back, boosting chances it will succeed and lead to the release of fresh aid funds.

European stocks and peripheral bonds were also buoyed by news eurozone finance ministers have approved aid to Spanish banks, alleviating the tail risks of a banking crisis in Spain.

The U.S. fiscal cliff issue remained in the minds of many investors.

The White House dismissed a proposal from congressional Republicans on Monday that included tax reforms and spending cuts, saying it did not meet President Barack Obama's pledge to raise taxes on the wealthiest Americans.

The Republicans proposed overhauling the U.S. tax code to raise $800 billion in new revenue over 10 years. Obama's opening bid, outlined last Friday, seeks $1.6 trillion in new revenue by allowing the expiry of tax cuts enacted under President George W. Bush for the top two tax brackets.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo and Vidya Ranganathan in Singapore; Editing by Richard Borsuk)

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Asian shares, euro rise after firm China data

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares and the euro rose on Monday as further signs of a stabilizing Chinese economy boosted investor risk appetite, offsetting worries that stagnant U.S. budget talks could threaten to derail the world's largest economy.

A firm manufacturing survey from Asia's fourth-largest economy, South Korea, also brightened mood, while data from Australia showing sluggish retail sales and labor demand and tame inflation raised expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia may cut interest rates at its meeting on Tuesday.

India will report its manufacturing data later in the day.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> climbed 0.4 percent to a fresh nine-month high, after closing at its highest since February 29 on Friday, and a touch below 2012 highs. Hong Kong shares <.hsi> extended gains, hitting fresh intra-day highs on the year.

The pace of activity in China's vast manufacturing sector quickened for the first time in 13 months in November, with the final reading for the HSBC Purchasing Managers' Survey (PMI) rising to 50.5 in November, further evidence that the economy is reviving after seven quarters of slowing growth.

China's official PMI hit a seven-month high of 50.6 for November, according to a manufacturing survey over the weekend, while an official PMI survey of non-manufacturing sectors ticked up to 55.6 in November, led by construction services.

The euro rose to a six-week high against the dollar at $1.3048, after the upbeat data on Chinese manufacturing helped to trigger stop-loss buying of the common currency.

"There is growing confidence that China's economy bottomed in July-September, with signs of firmer external demand," said Hirokazu Yuihama, a senior strategist at Daiwa Securities.

"Sentiment is supported because the gradual recovery in Asian economies comes against the backdrop of low interest rates environment, which won't be changed anytime soon, so the recovery in risk sentiment is likely to extend into next year," he said.

The favorable Chinese data and hopes of a rate cut saw Australian shares <.axjo> up 0.7 percent to a five-week high.

South Korean shares <.ks11> rose 0.3 percent to their highest in more than six weeks, buoyed by weekend data showing exports posted their first back-to-back growth of the year and a private manufacturing survey on Monday showing a the pace of contraction slowed in November.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> added 0.7 percent to a fresh seven-month high, extending gains from Friday. <.t/>

"My understanding of the current market move is mainly due to the catch up of high-beta exporting companies due to the global economic trend ... This process of catch up will continue until the Nikkei hit 10,000," said Ryota Sakagami, chief strategist at SMBC Nikko Securities, of Nikkei.

Japanese firms raised spending on plant and equipment in the third quarter for a fourth consecutive quarterly rise, in the latest sign the world's third-largest economy may have seen the worst from the effect of slack global demand.

ANXIETY GAUGE MIXED

Major stock market indexes closed little changed and Treasury yields slipped on safe-haven demand on Friday as the stalemate in U.S. budget talks fuelled concerns about slowing U.S. economic growth.

European stocks ended Friday slightly down but posted solid monthly gains, thanks to growing views that the worst of Europe's debt crisis is over.

The Euro STOXX 50 Volatility Index <.v2tx>, Europe's widely-used measure of investor risk aversion, fell to its lowest level not seen since mid-2007 of 16.26 on Friday.

Data from EPFR Global showed on Friday that worldwide, stock funds took in $14.86 billion in the week ended November 28, the second-largest total since 2008, while investors pumped the most into U.S. stock funds in over a year even as U.S. lawmakers sparred over planned budget cuts.

But the CBOE Volatility Index <.vix>, which reflects anxiety in the Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx>, jumped 5.4 percent on Friday for its largest daily gain in two weeks.

The euro fell on Friday after Moody's downgraded the credit ratings on the European Stability Mechanism and the European Financial Stability Fund last week, but the drop was limited.

The dollar steadied at 82.34 yen, not far from a 7-1/2-month high of 82.84 yen touched on November 22.

Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday showed currency speculators in the latest week boosted short yen positions to the highest since the beginning of May, 2007, riding on speculation that a likely change in Japan's government would lead to more aggressive monetary easing.

Both U.S. crude futures and Brent inched up 0.3 percent to $89.16 a barrel and $111.57 respectively, while London copper also gained 0.3 percent to $8,018 a metric ton (1.1023 tons).

Spot gold crawled up 0.3 percent to $1,719.71 an ounce, as a 0.2 percent drop <.dxy> in the dollar against a basket of key currencies made dollar-based commodities less expensive for holders of non-dollar currencies.

(Additional reporting by Dominic Lau in Tokyo; Editing by Michael Perry)

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Cliff fight may knock out December rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) - In normal times, next week's slew of U.S. economic data could be a springboard for a December rally in the stock market.

December is historically a strong month for markets. The S&P 500 has risen 16 times in the past 20 years during the month.

But the market hasn't been operating under normal circumstances since November 7 when a day after the U.S. election, investors' focus shifted squarely to the looming "fiscal cliff."

Investors are increasingly nervous about the ability of lawmakers to undo the $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that are set to begin in January; those changes, if they go into effect, could send the U.S. economy into a recession.

A string of economic indicators next week, which includes a key reading of the manufacturing sector on Monday, culminates with the November jobs report on Friday.

But the impact of those economic reports could be muted. Distortions in the data caused by Superstorm Sandy are discounted.

The spotlight will be more firmly on signs from Washington that politicians can settle their differences on how to avoid the fiscal cliff.

"We have a week with a lot of economic data, and obviously most of the economic data is going to reflect the effects of Sandy, and that might be a little bit negative for the market next week, but most of that is already expected - the main focus remains the fiscal cliff," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.

Concerns about the cliff sent the S&P 500 <.spx> into a two-week decline after the elections, dropping as much as 5.3 percent, only to rally back nearly 4 percent as the initial tone of talks offered hope that a compromise could be reached and investors snapped up stocks that were viewed as undervalued.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained more than 20 points from its intraday low after House Speaker John Boehner said he was optimistic that a budget deal to avoid big spending cuts and tax hikes could be worked out. The next day, more pessimistic comments from Boehner, an Ohio Republican, briefly wiped out the day's gains in stocks.

On Friday, the sharp divide between the Democrats and the Republicans on taxes and spending was evident in comments from President Barack Obama, who favors raising taxes on the wealthy, and Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, who said Obama's plan was the wrong approach and declared that the talks had reached a stalemate.

"It's unusual to end up with one variable in this industry, it's unusual to have a single bullet that is the causal factor effect, and you are sitting here for the next maybe two weeks or more, on that kind of condition," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago.

"And that is what is grabbing the markets."

BE CONTRARY AND MAKE MERRY

But investor attitudes and seasonality could also help spur a rally for the final month of the year.

The most recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors reflected investor caution about the cliff. Although bullish sentiment rose above 40 percent for the first time since August 23, bearish sentiment remained above its historical average of 30.5 percent for the 14th straight week.

December is a critical month for retailers such as Target Corp and Macy's Inc . They saw monthly retail sales results dented by Sandy, although the start of the holiday shopping season fared better.

With consumer spending making up roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy, a solid showing for retailers during the holiday season could help fuel any gains.

Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, believes the recent drop after the election could be a market bottom, with sentiment leaving stocks poised for a December rally.

"The concerns on the fiscal cliff - as valid as they might be - could be overblown. When you look at a lot of the overriding sentiment, that has gotten extremely negative," said Detrick.

"From that contrarian point of view with the historically bullish time frame of December, we once again could be setting ourselves up for a pretty nice end-of-year rally, based on lowered expectations."

SOME FEEL THE BIG CHILL

Others view the fiscal cliff as such an unusual event that any historical comparisons should be thrown out the window, with a rally unlikely because of a lack of confidence in Washington to reach an agreement and the economic hit caused by Sandy.

"History doesn't matter. You're dealing with an extraordinary set of circumstances that could very well end up in the U.S. economy going into a recession," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors in New York.

"And the likelihood of that is exclusively in the hands of our elected officials in Washington. They could absolutely drag us into a completely voluntary recession."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: charles.mikolajczak(at)thomsonreuters.com )

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Cliff fight may knock out December rally

NEW YORK (Reuters) - In normal times, next week's slew of U.S. economic data could be a springboard for a December rally in the stock market.

December is historically a strong month for markets. The S&P 500 has risen 16 times in the past 20 years during the month.

But the market hasn't been operating under normal circumstances since November 7 when a day after the U.S. election, investors' focus shifted squarely to the looming "fiscal cliff."

Investors are increasingly nervous about the ability of lawmakers to undo the $600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts that are set to begin in January; those changes, if they go into effect, could send the U.S. economy into a recession.

A string of economic indicators next week, which includes a key reading of the manufacturing sector on Monday, culminates with the November jobs report on Friday.

But the impact of those economic reports could be muted. Distortions in the data caused by Superstorm Sandy are discounted.

The spotlight will be more firmly on signs from Washington that politicians can settle their differences on how to avoid the fiscal cliff.

"We have a week with a lot of economic data, and obviously most of the economic data is going to reflect the effects of Sandy, and that might be a little bit negative for the market next week, but most of that is already expected - the main focus remains the fiscal cliff," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Rockwell Global Capital in New York.

Concerns about the cliff sent the S&P 500 <.spx> into a two-week decline after the elections, dropping as much as 5.3 percent, only to rally back nearly 4 percent as the initial tone of talks offered hope that a compromise could be reached and investors snapped up stocks that were viewed as undervalued.

On Wednesday, the S&P 500 gained more than 20 points from its intraday low after House Speaker John Boehner said he was optimistic that a budget deal to avoid big spending cuts and tax hikes could be worked out. The next day, more pessimistic comments from Boehner, an Ohio Republican, briefly wiped out the day's gains in stocks.

On Friday, the sharp divide between the Democrats and the Republicans on taxes and spending was evident in comments from President Barack Obama, who favors raising taxes on the wealthy, and Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, who said Obama's plan was the wrong approach and declared that the talks had reached a stalemate.

"It's unusual to end up with one variable in this industry, it's unusual to have a single bullet that is the causal factor effect, and you are sitting here for the next maybe two weeks or more, on that kind of condition," said Sandy Lincoln, chief market strategist at BMO Asset Management U.S. in Chicago.

"And that is what is grabbing the markets."

BE CONTRARY AND MAKE MERRY

But investor attitudes and seasonality could also help spur a rally for the final month of the year.

The most recent survey by the American Association of Individual Investors reflected investor caution about the cliff. Although bullish sentiment rose above 40 percent for the first time since August 23, bearish sentiment remained above its historical average of 30.5 percent for the 14th straight week.

December is a critical month for retailers such as Target Corp and Macy's Inc . They saw monthly retail sales results dented by Sandy, although the start of the holiday shopping season fared better.

With consumer spending making up roughly 70 percent of the U.S. economy, a solid showing for retailers during the holiday season could help fuel any gains.

Ryan Detrick, senior technical strategist at Schaeffer's Investment Research in Cincinnati, believes the recent drop after the election could be a market bottom, with sentiment leaving stocks poised for a December rally.

"The concerns on the fiscal cliff - as valid as they might be - could be overblown. When you look at a lot of the overriding sentiment, that has gotten extremely negative," said Detrick.

"From that contrarian point of view with the historically bullish time frame of December, we once again could be setting ourselves up for a pretty nice end-of-year rally, based on lowered expectations."

SOME FEEL THE BIG CHILL

Others view the fiscal cliff as such an unusual event that any historical comparisons should be thrown out the window, with a rally unlikely because of a lack of confidence in Washington to reach an agreement and the economic hit caused by Sandy.

"History doesn't matter. You're dealing with an extraordinary set of circumstances that could very well end up in the U.S. economy going into a recession," said Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors in New York.

"And the likelihood of that is exclusively in the hands of our elected officials in Washington. They could absolutely drag us into a completely voluntary recession."

(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Friday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: charles.mikolajczak(at)thomsonreuters.com )

(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Wall Street ends higher after swings on 'fiscal cliff'

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks finished higher on Thursday as investors bought on sporadic dips in a market roiled by conflicting comments from Washington about negotiations on an agreement to avoid the "fiscal cliff."

Tech shares, including Research In Motion and Advanced Micro Devices , helped the Nasdaq outperform the broader market. Telecommunications and health-care stocks were the day's best-performing sectors.

Reflecting the uncertainty surrounding U.S. budget talks, trading was choppy. Wall Street reversed early gains and fell shortly after House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, dashed hopes that lawmakers were getting closer to a budget deal that would avert automatic tax increases and spending cuts set for early 2013 - the fiscal cliff - that could push the U.S. economy into a recession next year. But the market rebounded by afternoon and the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded to near their session highs.

"There is an emotional part in buying on the small dips here. Investors are more worried about missing the rally than losing money as they believe that the 'fiscal cliff' will be solved eventually," said James Dailey, portfolio manager at TEAM Asset Strategy Fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania.

"Until the fiscal cliff is solved, the madness of the crowd will not subside."

Discussions on Capitol Hill are aimed at avoiding big automatic spending cuts and tax hikes, known as the fiscal cliff, that will start taking effect beginning in January.

Boehner's comment about a lack of progress in talks with the White House was one of a series of contrary pronouncements by lawmakers and the Obama administration over whether Washington will finally cut a deal.

There have been some signs that leaders are moving closer to a fiscal agreement. The S&P 500 has gained about 5 percent recently after a sell-off that took it down almost 8 percent following the U.S. election on November 6. But investors remain wary that politicians' ad hoc statements can spark quick reversals in the market.

U.S.-listed shares of BlackBerry maker Research In Motion rose 4 percent to $11.54 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock to "buy" from "neutral" on optimism ahead of the launch of the BlackBerry 10 smartphone.

Advanced Micro Devices Inc shares gained 4.1 percent to $2.04 on plans to sell and lease back its campus in Austin, Texas. The sale and lease-back will raise cash and fund its chipmaking business as Advanced Micro Devices diversifies beyond the struggling PC industry into new markets.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 36.71 points, or 0.28 percent, to 13,021.82 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> gained 6.02 points, or 0.43 percent, to 1,415.95. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> advanced 20.25 points, or 0.68 percent, to close at 3,012.03.

So far this week, the Dow is up 0.1 percent, the S&P 500 is up 0.5 percent and the Nasdaq is up 1.5 percent.

But shares of top retailers retreated in the wake of data showing a weak start to November sales after Superstorm Sandy. Kohl's Corp fell 12 percent to $45.02.

Tiffany shares dropped 6.2 percent to $59.80 after the upscale jeweler reported quarterly results and cut its full-year sales and profit forecasts.

Supervalu shares sank 18.6 percent to $2.28 after a report that Cerberus Capital Management was having difficulty obtaining financing to buy out the troubled grocery chain.

Data showed the U.S. economy grew faster than initially thought in the third quarter as businesses restocked, but consumer and business spending were revised lower in a sobering reminder of the economic recovery's underlying weakness.

Contracts to buy previously owned U.S. homes rose more than expected in October, a sign the housing market recovery advanced into the fourth quarter despite a mammoth storm and concerns over looming tax hikes. Homebuilders' shares rose. The PHLX housing index <.hgx> rose 0.8 percent.

About 6.15 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares.

On both the NYSE and the Nasdaq, roughly three stocks rose for every one that fell.

(Editing by Kenneth Barry and Jan Paschal)

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Wall Street jumps in another "fiscal cliff" swing

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks rallied on Wednesday after comments from House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, on a possible compromise to avoid the "fiscal cliff" turned the market around.

The S&P 500 rebounded from a 1 percent decline, gaining more than 20 points from its low after Boehner, an Ohio Republican, said he was optimistic that a budget deal to avoid big spending cuts and tax hikes can be worked out. President Barack Obama added to the good feelings, saying he hoped to get a deal done in the next four weeks.

Whether or not those remarks reflect the reality of negotiations is another story.

"The fiscal cliff is dominating the discussion, and short term, we're a little bit too optimistic on it being fixed right away," said John Manley, chief equity strategist for Wells Fargo Advantage Funds in New York.

In expectation of higher dividend tax rates in 2013, companies have been shifting dividends or announcing special payouts to shareholders.

Costco Wholesale Corp , up 6.3 percent at $102.58, was the S&P 500's biggest percentage gainer after it became the latest company to announce a special dividend.

The market's move marked the second straight day where a leading legislator dictated trading action. On Tuesday, stocks fell on pessimistic remarks from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat from Nevada.

The market has been swinging for weeks now on headlines from Washington, with Wednesday's gyrations once again highlighting the importance that Wall Street is giving to finding a solution to avoid the series of tax increases and spending cuts that could push the U.S. economy into recession.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 106.98 points, or 0.83 percent, to 12,985.11 at the close. The S&P 500 <.spx> gained 10.99 points, or 0.79 percent, to 1,409.93. The Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> added 23.99 points, or 0.81 percent, to close at 2,991.78.

The S&P 500 bounced off a strong support area near 1,385 that includes both its 200- and 14-day moving averages. It closed above 1,400 for the third session in four - an optimistic sign for stock bulls.

Knight Capital Group Inc shares jumped 15.2 percent to $3.42 on news that Getco Holding proposed a $1.4 billion merger with Knight, while Virtu Financial offered to buy Knight for at least $1.1 billion.

Apparel retailer Express Inc rose 8.9 percent to $14.15 after it forecast strong earnings for the current quarter as lower prices and easy-to-understand discounts led to robust Black Friday sales.

The S&P retail index <.spxrt> gained 1.4 percent.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters surged 27.3 percent to $36.86 a day after it forecast quarterly and full-year earnings well ahead of analysts' expectations.

Nearly 6.1 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.48 billion shares.

On the NYSE, roughly seven stocks rose for every three that fell, and on Nasdaq, five issues rose for every three that fell.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Wall Street falls, hit by Reid's "fiscal cliff" comments

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks slid on Tuesday in a choppy session, losing ground in the last hour before the close after Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid expressed disappointment that there has been "little progress" in dealing with the "fiscal cliff."

The market was flat for most of the session but fell sharply after Reid's comments, a signal that investors remain skittish about the wrangling in Washington. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, rose on Reid's words.

"It may be that the market feels the goodwill before (last week's) Thanksgiving is evolving into more political intransigence," said Quincy Krosby, market strategist at Prudential Financial in Newark.

"The clock is ticking on Wall Street, regarding a framework for (political) consensus," she said.

Markets are focused on whether Congress and the White House can agree on ways to avoid some $600 billion in automatic spending cuts and tax increases that are due to kick in early next year.

As budget talks linger, Las Vegas Sands and Supertex added their names to a growing list of companies announcing special dividends aimed at helping investors avoid a possibly higher tax burden next year.

Higher dividend and capital gains taxes are part of the negotiations in Washington and may rise even if a deal is crafted.

Las Vegas Sands jumped 5.3 percent to $46.36. Supertex rose 6.9 percent to $18.

The S&P 500's modest losses on Tuesday marked its worst day in eight sessions - indicating traders are unwilling to sell aggressively as a deal probably would trigger a rally. The benchmark S&P 500 once again closed below 1,400, a key psychological level that it had reclaimed last week as it rose nearly 4 percent.

The VIX <.vix> shot up 2.7 percent to 15.92 at the close. Between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. in New York, the VIX was up 3.9 percent.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> fell 89.24 points, or 0.69 percent, to 12,878.13 at the close. The S&P 500 <.spx> dropped 7.35 points, or 0.52 percent, to finish at 1,398.94. The Nasdaq Composite <.ixic> lost 8.99 points, or 0.30 percent, to end at 2,967.79.

Dealings in Washington obscured strong economic figures, including an increase in planned business spending and consumer confidence hitting its highest level in more than four years.

Strengthening the case for a sustained rebound in housing, single-family home prices rose for an eighth straight month in September. Shares of M/I Homes gained 2.1 percent to $22.36. KB Home added 1.1 percent to $14.61.

"As long as you have interest rates as low as they are right now, housing is definitely back," said Brian Amidei, managing director at HighTower Advisors in Palm Desert, California.

In another good sign for consumer demand, Corning Inc shares rose 6.9 percent to $12.13 after the specialty glass maker said it expects full-year sales of its Gorilla glass, used in smartphones and tablets, to approach $1 billion.

Food maker Ralcorp Holdings shares jumped 26.4 percent to $88.80 after long-time suitor ConAgra Foods sealed a deal to buy it for $5 billion. ConAgra shares gained 4.7 percent to $29.63.

McMoRan Exploration Co shares tumbled 15.2 percent to $8.18 a day after the oil and gas driller gave a disappointing update on a key gas prospect in a Gulf of Mexico well.

About 5.9 billion shares changed hands on the New York Stock Exchange, the Nasdaq and NYSE MKT, below the daily average so far this year of about 6.5 billion shares.

On the NYSE, roughly five issues fell for every four that rose. On Nasdaq, six stocks fell for every five that rose.

(Reporting by Rodrigo Campos; Additional reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal)

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Asian shares, euro rise on Greek debt deal

TOKYO (Reuters) - The euro hit a one-month high, commodities rose and Asian shares climbed for a seventh consecutive day on Tuesday as global lenders reached a deal on new debt targets for Greece and a political agreement on disbursing the next installment of aid.

European shares will likely track Asian peers higher, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> to open as much as 0.7 percent higher. <.l><.eu><.n/>

U.S. stock futures were up 0.3 percent, hinting at a firm Wall Street open.

After 12 hours of talks at their third meeting in as many weeks, Greece's international lenders agreed on a package of measures to cut Greek debt to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020, and pledged to take further steps to lower the debt below 110 percent of GDP in 2022.

Eurogroup Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker said ministers would formally approve the release of crucial aid for debt-stricken Greece, removing uncertainty over whether Athens could avoid a near-term bankruptcy.

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> gained 0.7 percent to a near three-week high, led by a 1 percent advance in Korean shares <.ks11> and a 0.7 percent rise in Australian shares <.axjo>. Indian shares <.bsesn> also jumped 1.2 percent.

Shanghai shares <.ssec> bucked the trend to fell 1 percent to their lowest since 2009, dragged by weakness in growth-sensitive companies.

"Overhanging the market for a little while has been these macro concerns, so progress towards sorting the situation out gives room for the market to move higher," said Phillip Weinberg, director at BestEx.

Investors' focus is likely to shift now to another major concern hanging over markets, a looming U.S. fiscal crisis.

Republicans in the U.S. Congress on Monday called on President Barack Obama to detail long-term spending cuts to help solve the country's fiscal crisis, while holding firm against the income tax rate increases for the wealthy that Democrats seek.

"Now people will start focusing on the U.S. fiscal cliff and there could be some nervousness there, particularly if it drags on," said Burrell & Co dealer Jamie Elgar of Australian shares.

The euro gained as much as about 0.3 percent to $1.3010, its highest level since October 31, in reaction to the Greek news, before paring gains to be up 0.1 percent at $1.2982.

"The euro gained but the rise is small, and it's unlikely that it will climb further, with big funds winding down their positions ahead of the year-end. Any rise will be countered by selling to cap the euro's upside," said Hiroshi Maeba, head of FX trading Japan for UBS in Tokyo.

He cautioned that the euro still faced downside risks as the latest agreement does not offer a fundamental resolution to the euro zone's debt crisis.

"While the Eurogroup has set December 13 for formal approval of the disbursement, and Germany's planned parliamentary vote later this week will be watched with interest, for markets the deal should put Greece largely on the backburner for a couple of months before it starts missing its fiscal targets again," Sean Callow, senior currency strategist at Westpac bank in Sydney, said in a note.

He doubted if the euro's short-covering will produce sustained trade beyond $1.3050/$1.3100.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> rose 0.5 percent, just below Monday's seven-month closing high. The benchmark has climbed more than 8 percent in two weeks as the yen has weakened on expectations of easier monetary policy with the likely election of a new government. <.t/>

WEAK USD, CHINA HELP COMMODITIES

The dollar inched up 0.2 percent against the yen to 82.22 yen. The euro rose 0.3 percent against the yen to 106.72.

Traders said some investors unwound long positions in the dollar built up in recent weeks on expectations the Bank of Japan would come under pressure for more aggressive easing.

The dollar eased 0.1 percent against a basket of key currencies <.dxy>, helping to underpin dollar-based commodities.

U.S. crude futures rose 0.3 percent to $88.03 a barrel and Brent was up 0.2 percent to $111.09.

Spot gold was up 0.1 percent to $1,749.65 an ounce, just below a six-week high of $1,754.10 hit on Friday.

London copper hit a near one-month high of $7,821.50 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) as the Greek debt deal added to confidence over copper demand after recent positive data from its top consumer China.

Sentiment may be further underpinned by a report saying China has approved construction of two city subway projects worth 49 billion yuan ($7.87 billion), adding to the list of recent railway project approvals aimed at boosting growth in the world's second-biggest economy.

In another possible sign that the economy is regaining traction, China's industrial profits in October were up 20.5 percent from a year earlier, accelerating from 7.8 percent growth in September.

Asian credit markets firmed slightly, narrowing the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index by 1 basis point.

(Additional reporting by Victoria Thieberger in Melbourne; Editing by Edwina Gibbs & Kim Coghill)

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Asian shares edge higher on hopes for Greek deal

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asian shares inched up on Monday on hopes that Greece can avoid a near-term bankruptcy, with the market focusing on a euro zone finance ministers meeting later in the day, but a regional Spanish vote favoring separatist parties capped gains.

U.S. stock futures were down 0.3 percent, suggesting a soft Wall Street open, and European shares were seen falling, with financial spreadbetters predicting London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> to open down as much as 0.3 percent. <.l><.eu><.n/>

MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan <.miapj0000pus> was up 0.2 percent to a two-week high.

It marked the sixth consecutive day of advances and comes after the euro and global shares climbed on Friday on expectations that an agreement will be reached soon to disburse aid for Greece, and after a rise in Germany's Ifo business climate index.

"There is optimism around in regards to the euro area's ability to achieve a deal on Greece," said Emma Lawson, senior currency strategist at the National Australia Bank.

But worries about the Spanish vote and the implications for Madrid's push for fiscal austerity helped the euro slip 0.1 percent to $1.2960, pulling back from a three-week high of $1.2991 reached on Friday.

Against the yen, however, the single currency hit a seven-month peak of 107.13.

The yen was near a 7-1/2-month low of 82.84 yen to the dollar hit last week. It has been weakening on expectations of further monetary policy easing with the likely advent of a new Japanese government next month.

The dollar <.dxy> inched up 0.1 percent, after falling to a three-week low of 80.128 against a basket of major currencies on Friday as risk appetite gained.

Australian shares <.axjo> rose 0.2 percent on gains in energy and mining stocks, but Hong Kong <.hsi> and Shanghai <.ssec> shares eased slightly.

Japan's Nikkei stock average <.n225> gained 0.8 percent after rising to a seven-month high earlier on Monday on views that a weaker yen will boost earnings for exporters. <.t/>

"Although some investors are cautious about the fast-paced gains in the Japanese market, they will likely stay buyers on the back of the improving trading environment in the global market," said Hiroichi Nishi, general manager at SMBC Nikko Securities.

EUROPE HOLDS KEY

On Sunday, separatists in the Spanish region of Catalonia won an election but failed to get the resounding mandate they need to push convincingly for a referendum on independence.

The win heightens concerns about a potential negative impact on the Spanish economy and the country's finances, as Catalonia accounts for 20 percent of the economy and provides the most tax revenue to the central government.

"While the result helps tone down the risk of the government being forced to give more autonomy to Catalonia in its fiscal policy, the underlying discomfort the province may be feeling about its big fiscal burden may persist," said Masafumi Yamamoto, chief FX strategist at Barclays in Tokyo.

He added that the result may weigh on the euro more when trading starts in Europe, where the euro's liquidity is far larger.

On Friday, European shares posted their best weekly gain so far this year on hopes for Greece and Germany's solid Ifo data, which followed firmer manufacturing reports from China and the United States released earlier last week.

London copper edged down 0.1 percent to $7,769.75 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) after rising for two weeks in a row. While signs of economic recovery in top consumer China helped support prices, China's official purchasing manufacturers' index due later in the week will be awaited for more confirmation of the trend.

"A positive PMI number should help a little bit, but we have not seen any significant improvement in the real economy yet," said Beijing-based metals analyst Wan Ling of commodities research house CRU Group.

The Thomson Reuters-Jefferies CRB index <.trjcrb>, a global commodities benchmark, rose to its highest close since October 23 on Friday -- its best weekly performance since mid-September with a 1.9 percent gain.

Spot gold eased 0.1 percent to $1,750.35 an ounce on Monday after rising above $1,750 for the first time in five weeks on Friday.

U.S. crude fell 0.5 percent to $87.88 a barrel and Brent eased 0.2 percent to $111.12.

Asian credit markets steadied, with the spreads on the iTraxx Asia ex-Japan investment-grade index barely moved from Friday levels.

(Additional reporting by Ayai Tomisawa in Tokyo, Ian Chua in Sydney and Melanie Burton in Singapore; Editing by Edwina Gibbs & Kim Coghill)

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